Monday, February 24, 2025

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Market Overview

• The Indian stock market ended last week at its lowest level since July last year.
• FIIs have been continuously selling Indian equities. Totaling more than ₹1 lakh crore in outflows for 2025.
• The BSE Sensex fell by 424.90 points, closing at 75,311.06.
• The Nifty 50 index dropped 117.25 points, ending at 22,795.90.

Key Factors Influencing the Market

• Global Trade Concerns: Ongoing worries about U.S. tariffs are affecting investor confidence.
• Foreign Investment Outflows: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over ₹23,710 crore from Indian equities in February, totaling more than ₹1 lakh crore in outflows for 2025.
• Interest Rate Speculation: The U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent statements suggest that higher interest rates may persist, which could impact liquidity in emerging markets like India.

Technical Insights

• The Nifty 50 is making Lower Lows on Weekly chart, showing bearish sentiment in the market.
• Nifty formed a Bearish flag on daily chart, bottoming at the level of 22,720.
• Opening or breakdown below 22,700 could trigger stop-loss orders of buyers who accumulated in the 22,750-22,850 range, leading to further downside pressure.
• Technical Analysis suggest further crucial support at around 22,500 and 22,000.

Stocks in Focus

• Godrej Industries: Experienced significant trading activity last week.
• Vodafone Idea: Also saw heavy trading volumes.
• Mahindra & Mahindra: Notable movements observed in stock performance.

Looking Ahead

• Stay cash at these levels. Further fall is anticipated below 22700. Market is already making Lower Lows on Higher Time frames.
• Stay informed about global economic developments, especially related to trade policies and interest rates.
• Monitoring FPI activity can provide insights into market trends.

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Stay Informed with Market Mint and trade responsibly.
-Team Market Mint

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*Note: This newsletter is not a financial advice in any form. It’s only for discussion and information purposes. All views mentioned are solely of the author and should not be considered any kind of buy/sell advice. Consider discussing with your Financial Advisor before investing.*

Date: Thursday, February 20, 2025

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Market Overview

• Benchmark Indices: The BSE Sensex slightly declined by 28.21 points (0.04%) to close at 75,939.18. The Nifty 50 also saw a minor drop of 12.40 points (0.05%), ending at 22,932.90.
• Sector Highlights: Financial stocks experienced gains, balancing out losses in the pharmaceutical sector, which faced challenges due to recent U.S. tariff concerns.

Technical Insights

• Nifty Analysis: A green candle formation on the daily chart suggests potential strength. According to PCR 23,000-23,100 is a crucial resistance for now. Surpassing this could indicate a short-term trend reversal.
• Support Levels: Immediate support is identified at 22,786. Maintaining levels above this may favor a ‘buy-on-dips’ strategy.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) Activity

• Recent Trends: After 23 consecutive sessions of selling, FIIs have turned net buyers in the cash market. This shift could influence market dynamics, though its sustainability remains to be observed.

Global Factors

• U.S. Tariff Developments: The pharmaceutical sector is under pressure due to potential U.S. tariffs, impacting investor sentiment.
• Interest Rate Speculations: Delays in anticipated interest rate cuts by FED are contributing to market caution.

Analyst Perspectives

• Market Sentiment: Despite global uncertainties, optimism persists regarding India’s GDP growth and expected increases in government expenditure. Large-cap stocks currently present a favorable risk-reward profile.

Trading Recommendations

• Strategy: Traders are advised to consider a ‘buy-on-dips’ approach, especially if Nifty maintains above the 22,725 support level. Monitoring movements around the 23,265-23,350 is crucial for assessing potential trend reversals.

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Stay Informed with Market Mint and trade responsibly.
-Team Market Mint

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Note: This newsletter is not a financial advice in any form. It’s only for discussion and information purposes. All views mentioned are solely of the author and should not be considered any kind of buy/sell advice. Consider discussing with your Financial Advisor before investing.

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

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Market Overview

• On Tuesday, the Indian stock market experienced a significant decline.
  • Sensex: Dropped by 1,018.20 points (1.32%) to close at 76,293.60.
  • Nifty 50: Fell by 309.80 points (1.32%) to end at 23,071.80.

Key Factors Influencing the Market

• Weak Domestic Earnings: Recent corporate earnings have not met market expectations, leading to reduced investor confidence.
• Global Trade Concerns: Ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S. trade policies and potential tariffs are affecting global market sentiments.
• Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) Selling: Continuous selling by FIIs has added to the downward pressure on the market.

Technical Insights

• The Nifty index formed a long bearish candle on the daily chart, breaking the crucial support level of 23,350 and eventually breaking below 23265.
• This pattern indicates strong downward momentum, with the next significant support zone around 22,900 and crucial support at 22786, which was the last swing low on daily chart.
• Resistance levels are at 23,200 and 23,265 and 23,350.
• Although the technical view on Nifty chart is of Sell on Rise.

Market Sentiment

• The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and tariffs, coupled with domestic economic growth concerns and persistent selling by FIIs, is dampening market sentiment.
• The larger degree bearish pattern like lower tops and bottoms is visible on the daily chart, and the Nifty is now sliding down to form a new lower bottom below the swing low of January at 22,786 levels.

Outlook for Wednesday

• Given the current technical indicators and global uncertainties, markets are expected to remain volatile, with bias towards downside.
• Traders are advised to exercise caution, trade with strict SL. As the market sentiment is Bearish right now, it is advised to look for selling opportunities when market rises to resistance levels. Resistance levels are at 23,200 and 23,265 and 23,350.

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Stay Informed with Market Mint and trade responsibly.
-Team Market Mint

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Note: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s essential to conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment and trading decisions.

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As we approach the trading week starting Monday, February 10, 2025, several key factors are poised to influence the Indian stock markets. Here’s a concise overview to keep you informed:

1. RBI’s Recent Rate Cut

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first cut in nearly five years. This move aims to stimulate economic growth. However, the absence of additional liquidity measures has led to mixed reactions in the financial markets.

2. Upcoming Modi-Trump Meeting

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on February 12-13. Discussions are expected to cover economic and geopolitical topics. Investors will be attentive to any announcements that could impact bilateral trade and market sentiment.

3. Q3FY25 Earnings Reports

• The upcoming week will see the third-quarter results of over 2,000 companies. However, the most closely watched earnings are likely to be those of Eicher Motors, EIH Associated Hotels, Escorts Kubota, Signature Global, Varun Beverages, Vodafone Idea, Ircon International, IRCTC, Lupin, MOIL, NBCC, SAIL, Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), and RVNL, among others.

4. Global Market Trends

• Movements in global markets, especially in the U.S., will play a crucial role. Factors such as U.S. economic data releases, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical developments will be closely monitored.

5. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) Activity

• The actions of FIIs, whether as net buyers or sellers, significantly influence market liquidity and direction. Recent trends indicate cautious behavior, and their activities this week will be pivotal.

6. Technical Analysis

• The Nifty 50 index has shown volatility, with immediate support level around 23,450, pivotal support at 23350-23265 and resistance near 23,800. A sustained move above 23,700 could lead to testing higher resistance zones, while a dip below 23,450 may signal further downside.

7. Rupee Exchange Rates

• The rupee closed on Friday  near its life time weakest at 87.593 after the RBI cut rates by 0.25% to 6.25%. The RBI revised its FY25 GDP growth forecast down to 6.4% (from 6.6%) and projected 6.7% for FY26, citing an investment-led recovery. It remains to be seen how INR and stock market behaves in this coming week.

Stay Informed with Market Mint and trade responsibly.
-Team Market Mint

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Note: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Friday, February 7, 2025

Market Recap

• On Thursday, the Sensex declined by 213.12 points (0.27%) to close at 78,058.16. The Nifty 50 also fell, ending at 23,603.35, down 92.95 points (0.39%).

Key Factors Influencing the Market

• RBI Policy Decision: Investors are cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming monetary policy announcement, anticipating potential rate cuts amid global trade uncertainties.
• Global Trade Concerns: Ongoing trade tensions are causing worries about their impact on global trade dynamics and economic growth.

Technical Insights

• The Nifty formed a significant bearish candle on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. Despite this, the bullish pattern of higher highs and lows remains intact. Current weakness might find support around 23,500-23,450 levels, with a potential rebound expected. A decisive move above 23,800 could trigger renewed buying momentum.

Trading Strategy

• Traders are advised to monitor the 23,500 support level. A bounce from this level could present buying opportunities, especially if the Nifty moves above the 23,800 mark, signaling potential for further gains.
• If the market struggles to bounce from 23500 level and starts falling further or closes below 23500-23450, we might witness further fall. 23350 and 23265 will be very crucial to for bulls in the market.

Looking Ahead

• Market participants should stay vigilant regarding the RBI’s policy decisions and global trade developments, as these factors are likely to influence market movements.

Stay informed and trade wisely with Market Mint.

-Team Market Mint

Thursday, February 6, 2025

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Market Recap

• Indices: The Sensex declined by 0.40%, closing at 78,271.28 points. The Nifty 50 also dipped by 0.18%, ending at 23,696.30.
• Sector Highlights:
  • Energy Gains: ONGC’s upgraded production outlook led to a rise in its stock price. BPCL and HPCL also saw gains after rating upgrades from Goldman Sachs.
  • Consumer Decline: Asian Paints fell by 3.38% to ₹2,275.65, underperforming the market.
• FIIs turned net sellers again: Foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers of Indian equities on Wednesday after a session of buying on Tuesday as they sold stocks worth approximately Rs 1,682.8 crore.

Technical Outlook

• Nifty’s Trajectory: Technically charts suggest that Nifty may target 24,050 in the near term, with support at 23,500, indicated by significant put writing at that level.
• As it’s Thursday today, Nifty could be volatile. A good move above 23800 could lead Nifty to 24000. And Nifty could test 23350, if it breaks below 23600.

Global Insights

• US Market Movement: Wall Street exhibited mixed results, with investors analyzing recent earnings reports and economic data.

Looking Ahead

• RBI Policy Meeting: Market is  keenly awaiting the outcomes of the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting, with expectations of a potential rate cut influencing market sentiment. The meeting will conclude on Friday, 7th February.

Stay informed with Market Mint for your daily market updates. Happy Trading!

-Team Market Mint

PS: Starting today, Morning Mint is now Market Mint.

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Wednesday, February 5, 2025

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Market Recap

• Sensex Surges: Sensex climbed 1,397.07 points (1.81%) to close at 78,583.81.
• Nifty’s Rally:  Nifty 50 index rose by 378.20 points (1.62%), ending at 23,739.25.
• Global Relief: The U.S. decision to halt planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico eased global trade tensions, boosting market sentiment.
• Banking Boost: Anticipation of a rate cut in the upcoming RBI policy meeting spurred a rally in banking stocks.

Technical Levels

• Bullish Indicators: Nifty formed a green candle with a long lower shadow, suggesting potential for further gains.
• Resistance Levels: Key resistance is identified at 23,800-23,820 levels, with potential upside towards 24,050. Immediate support is at 23,630 and 23,500.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs)

After 23 sessions of selling, FPIs turned net buyers, indicating potential renewed confidence in the Indian market.

Looking Ahead

Anticipate continued bullish momentum, with a focus on breaking the 23,800 resistance level. Advised to look for buying opportunities on dips.

Stay informed with Morning Mint.

-Team Market Mint

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Note: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Global Market Overview

• US Tariffs Impact: President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China have heightened fears of a trade war. In response, Canada and Mexico have implemented retaliatory measures. Investors are now closely monitoring China’s potential actions following the Lunar New Year celebrations.

Market Recap

• Market Decline: On Monday, the Sensex dropped by 319.22 points (0.41%) to close at 77,186.74. The Nifty 50 also fell by 121.10 points (0.52%), ending at 23,361.05. Major contributors to this decline were Reliance Industries and Larsen & Toubro.

Technical Analysis

• Nifty’s Hammer Candle: The Nifty index formed a ‘hammer’ candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating demand and support around the 23200-220 level. Immediate resistance for Nifty is at 23420-450..

Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) Activity

• FIIs were net sellers in the cash market and in index F&O and stocks F&O.
• Foreign portfolio investors stayed net sellers of Indian equities for the 22nd straight session on Monday as they sold stocks worth approximately Rs 3,958.4 crore.

Stay informed and make well-considered investment decisions.

Note: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Monday, February 3, 2025

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Market Overview

• Post-Budget Market Reaction: The Indian stock market closed nearly flat in the special Budget session on Saturday. The Sensex inched up by 5.39 points to 77,505.96, while the Nifty 50 dipped by 26.25 points to 23,482.15 after a very volatile day following the Finance Minister’s Budget speech.
  Investors are digesting the modest 10% year-over-year increase in capital expenditure announced in the Union Budget 2025.

Key Factors Influencing the Market This Week

1. Budget Implications: The government’s move to eliminate taxes on income up to ₹12 lakh under the new tax regime aims to boost consumption, potentially benefiting sectors like FMCG and automotive.
2. RBI Policy Outlook: The Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming policy meeting is anticipated to result in a rate cut, especially with declining food prices. Such a move could influence banking stocks and overall market liquidity.
3. Corporate Earnings: Major companies are set to release their Q3 earnings this week. Power grid, Divis Lab, Swiggy, Titan, Asian Paints, Tata Power, SBI, and Bharti Airtel are releasing results in this week.
4. Foreign Investor Activity: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers for the 22nd consecutive session on Saturday. It remains to be seen this week if FIIs become net buyers.
5. Global Market Trends: It is worth noting that DJI fell 337 points on Saturday, which is a fall from levels of 45050-70, previous ATH in December 2024. (Potentially a double top?)
   Movements in international markets, especially in the U.S. will influence domestic sentiment. Notably, U.S. markets declined on Friday due to tariff concerns.

Technical Insights

• Nifty Levels: The Nifty has immediate resistance between 23,500 and 23,600. A decisive move above this range could pave the way towards 24,000. Immediate support is identified at 23,350 and 23265.

IPO Spotlight

• Initial Public Offerings (IPOs): India is gearing up for a significant year in IPOs, with at least seven companies, including Groww and Pine Labs, expected to raise at least $1 billion each. The total equity fundraising could surpass $23 billion, following last year’s $19.6 billion from 336 IPOs.

Global Economic Indicators

• U.S. Federal Reserve Actions: Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees no hurry to cut again, coupled with indications of fewer cuts ahead.

Looking Ahead

Traders are advised to stay cautious for this week. Let market give a clear indication on Monday or Tuesday depending on where it closes strongly. Bullish sentiment will be strong above 23600, and Bearish sentiment will prevail below 23265.

Investors should stay vigilant as the market navigates through budgetary impacts. Diversifying portfolios and focusing on fundamentally strong sectors may offer immunity in potential volatility.

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Stay informed, stay ahead with Market Mint.

-Team Market Mint

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Morning Mint: Weekly edition

Sunday, February 2, 2025

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Union Budget 2025: Key Highlights and Implications

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union Budget for 2025-26 yesterday on February 1st, introducing several measures aimed at stimulating economic growth and providing relief to various segments of the population.

Income Tax Reforms

• Increased Tax Exemption Limit: The government has raised the non-taxable income threshold from ₹7 lakh to ₹12.8 lakh per annum. This move is expected to boost disposable income for the middle class, encouraging higher consumer spending.
• Reduced Tax Rates: For individuals earning above ₹12.8 lakh, tax rates have been lowered. These changes are projected to result in a revenue loss of approximately ₹1 trillion for the government.

Fiscal Deficit and Borrowing

• Fiscal Deficit Target: The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP in 2025-26, down from the revised 4.8% in the current year.
• Borrowing Plan: To fund the deficit, the government plans to borrow ₹14.82 trillion through bonds.

Capital Expenditure

• Modest Increase: Capital spending is set to rise to ₹11.21 lakh crore  in 2025-26 from ₹10.18 lakh crore in the current year. This increase focuses on infrastructure projects, aiming to stimulate private investment and economic activity.

Support for Key Sectors

• Agriculture: A national mission will be launched to promote high-yielding crops, with a special focus on pulses and cotton. Additionally, the limit for subsidized credit to farmers has been increased to ₹5 lakh from the previous ₹3 lakh.
• Manufacturing and Exports: Initiatives to boost manufacturing and exports are on the agenda, though specific details are awaited. The government also plans to raise the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) limit in the insurance sector to 100% from the current 74%, aiming to deepen insurance penetration in the economy.

Implications for the Indian Economy and Citizens

• Economic Growth: The tax reforms are expected to enhance middle-class spending power, potentially stimulating demand in various sectors.
• Private Investment: The modest increase in capital expenditure, coupled with efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit, may create a conducive environment for private investments.
• Agricultural Productivity: Focused support for high-yielding crops and increased credit limits aim to boost agricultural output and farmer incomes.
• Insurance Sector: Raising the FDI limit could attract more foreign investment, leading to greater competition and potentially better insurance products for consumers.

Overall, the budget seeks to balance fiscal prudence with growth-oriented measures, aiming to foster sustainable economic development and improve the standard of living for Indian citizens.

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-Team Market Mint

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